As the cricketing world turns its gaze towards the World Test Championship (WTC) final scheduled for June 2025 at Lord’s, the recent Boxing Day Test has significantly altered the landscape of qualification. Australia’s emphatic 184-run victory over India not only gave them a 2-1 lead in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy 2024-25 but also heightened their chances of reaching the WTC final for a second consecutive time. With both teams now vying for a spot, the question arises: What happens if India and Australia finish with identical points?
A crucial final Test for India
India’s hopes of retaining the Border-Gavaskar Trophy hinge on their performance in the upcoming Test at Sydney, scheduled from January 3-7, 2025. Currently, India sit at 114 points in the WTC standings, needing a win to elevate their total to 126 points out of a possible 228. This would result in a points percentage (PCT) of 55.26%, crucial for their qualification hopes. A draw or loss, however, would eliminate them from contention entirely.
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Australia’s path to victory
Australia, on the other hand, currently holds 118 points and can secure a maximum of 154 points if they win all remaining matches. Even if they lose to India in Sydney, their fate will still depend on their upcoming series against Sri Lanka. If Australia loses to India and Sri Lanka wins by a scoreline of 2-0 or 1-0, India could leapfrog Australia in the standings.
The identical points scenario
The scenario where both teams finish with identical points—126 each—is plausible. This would occur if India wins in Sydney while Sri Lanka draws their series against Australia. In this case, both teams would end with a PCT of 55.26%. The WTC rules stipulate that if teams have equal points, the team with more series wins advances. Both teams would have three series victories each, necessitating further tiebreakers.
Deciding factor of the tie breaker
In the event of tied points and series wins, the next deciding factor is the percentage of points earned in away matches. India’s away record includes two Tests in the West Indies (1 win, 1 draw), two in South Africa (1 win, 1 loss), and five in Australia (2 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw), yielding them a total of 56 out of a possible 108 points (51.85% win rate). Conversely, Australia’s away performance includes five Tests in England (2 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw), two Tests in New Zealand (2 wins), and two Tests in Sri Lanka (2 draws), giving them a total of 60 out of 108 points (55.56% win rate).
With stakes this high, cricket fans eagerly await the conclusion of this gripping series and subsequent matches involving Sri Lanka and Australia, it is clear that every game will hold monumental significance for both India and Australia.
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